A Theory

Fred Clark has a theory:

The paper today ran an item in the national briefs about a new White House report on Social Security:

The Bush administration said in a new report Monday that Social Security is facing a $13.6 trillion shortfall in coming years and that delaying reforms is not fair to younger workers.

The full-length AP report doesn’t provide much in the way of supporting evidence for that claim of a “$13.6 trillion shortfall,” except to say this number was arrived at by calculating a cumulative deficit into “the indefinite future.” Apparenty, in order to come up with a sufficiently scary-sounding large number, they projected the deficit expected to arise in 2042 over the next several centuries, extending a demographic bubble (the Baby Boom) into a permanent, never-ending trend.

The Treasury report also seems to be based on the assumption that, over the next few centuries, America’s population will not grow but, rather, contract.

Scary thought: What if the Bush administration knows something the rest of us don’t about the next 300 years of America’s future? […]