John Dvorak bemoans the 30th anniversary of the spreadsheet. Nonsense on stilts from beginning to end:
2009 marks the 30-year anniversary of the now-ubiquitous spreadsheet program. And society as a whole has deteriorated ever since its invention. It was the spreadsheet that triggered the PC revolution, with VisiCalc the original culprit. Can anyone say that we've actually benefited from its invention? Look around: I think we've suffered.
For one thing, the spreadsheet created the "what if" society. Instead of moving forward and progressing normally, the what-if society questions each and every move we make. It second-guesses everything. Because of the spreadsheet we've been forced to "do the numbers" whenever possible; once the numbers are in the spreadsheet, the what-if process can begin.
So it would be better not to calculate the effects of decisions? A lack of precision in financial decision-making is a good thing?
The what-if society has marched forward with little actual regard for the customer. If the customer has a complaint, she can call someone in India—someone doing customer support there because the spreadsheet told the company it could save 1 cent a year on phone costs. There's no way this idea would have evolved without spreadsheets.
Yes, I'm sure than in the 1960s if you'd suggested to a manufacturer that thanks to advances in global transportation networks and the lowering of tariff barriers they could use skilled, non-unionised labour in a far-off country who could be paid 10% of what you paid you local workforce they'd have refused to consider the idea because they couldn't figure out to the last penny how much money they could save.
This is what caused the mortgage crisis: Spreadsheets instead of people were making decisions on loans. Soon these loans were wrapped up into neat financial packages all based on spreadsheet accounting. Brokers gave these packages high, triple-A financial ratings because the spreadsheet told them to. All spreadsheets, except the most mundane, are flawed in one way or another. You guess what the growth rate might be. You guess at the future cost of goods. You play what-if until you get what you want. There's a lot of guessing games played with spreadsheets. This is a flaw.
Garbage in, garbage out. The problem isn't that decisions were being made using a spreadsheet, it's that wildly optimistic statements about income were accepted without question because it was worth the commission to sign up a client regardless of their long-term prospects, and besides we all knew that house prices were going to keep on rising forever – or at least, for long enough to allow the broker to make their fortune and get out. It's not the tools used by brokers, it's the assumptions they made.
There's lots more in this vein in Dvorak's article. The bottom line is that spreadsheets, in the hands of knowledgeable users, allow them to pull together large quantities of data and play around with it in a flexible, user friendly manner. To be sure, sometimes the ease of use causes people to use a spreadsheet where a proper database would be more appropriate. No doubt, sometimes people don't understand that bad assumptions or inaccurate data can't be fixed by a computer, any more than they could by a calculator in the days before spreadsheets. Even so, for my money Bob Frankston and Dan Bricklin and their successors are owed a huge vote of thanks by millions of people in offices who have to play around with numbers for a living.
[Via Yoz Grahame]