April 1st, 2009
Wrong Tomorrow collects predictions made by public figures, be they politicians or pundits, and notes the timeframe in which the prediction is supposed to come true. The idea is that as predictions fall due they'll be tagged as right or wrong, thereby revealing who really knows what they're talking about.
It's a nice idea, but despite the site's claim that each prediction
needs to make an empirically testable claim about the world some of the predictions are too ill-defined to be testable. For example:
author: matt simmons
prediction: "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from an [oil] price shock."
Is there a formal definition of an
oil price shock? If prices suddenly double over the course of December 2009 that would presumably qualify, but what if prices increase gradually over the course of the next three/six/nine months? What if prices go up suddenly, but only by 15%?1
[Via Daring Fireball]